Predictors of course and outcome in hypochondriasis after cognitive-behavioral treatment

Background. Predictors of treatment outcome were evaluated in a clinical sample suffering from hypochondriasis. Methods: The sample consisted of 96 patients with hypochondriacal disorder according to DSM-IV or high syndrome scores on the Illness Attitude Scales (IAS) or Whiteley Index (WI). After intense inpatient cognitive-behavioral treatment (CBT), 60% of the patients were classified as responders because of substantial improvements or recovery from hypochondriacal symptomatology. Results: Non-responders were characterized by a higher degree of pre-treatment hypochondriasis, more somatization symptoms and general psychopathology (SCL-90R), more dysfunctional cognitions related to bodily functioning, higher levels of psychosocial impairments, and more utilization of the health care system as indicated by the number of hospital days and costs for inpatient treatments and medication. No predictive value was found for sociodemographic variables, comorbidity with other mental disorders and chronicity. Multiple linear regression showed that pre-treatment variables significantly predicted IAS scores at post-treatment (R-2 = 0.59), changes during treatment (0.10), IAS scores at follow-up two years later (0.41) and changes between baseline and follow-up (0.25). Conclusions: The results demonstrate the relevance of various psychopathological variables and health care utilization as important indicators for outcome and further course of clinical hypochondriasis. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel

A Unification of Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filters

In recent years, several ensemble-based Kalman filter algorithms have been developed that have been classified as ensemble square-root Kalman filters. Parallel to this development, the SEIK (Singular ``Evolutive'' Interpolated Kalman) filter has been introduced and applied in several studies. Some publications note that the SEIK filter is an ensemble Kalman filter or even an ensemble square-root Kalman filter. This study examines the relation of the SEIK filter to ensemble square-root filters in detail. It shows that the SEIK filter is indeed an ensemble-square root Kalman filter. Furthermore, a variant of the SEIK filter, the Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter (ESTKF), is presented that results in identical ensemble transformations to those of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) while having a slightly lower computational cost. Numerical experiments are conducted to compare the performance of three filters (SEIK, ETKF, and ESTKF) using deterministic and random ensemble transformations. The results show better performance for the ETKF and ESTKF methods over the SEIK filter as long as this filter is not applied with a symmetric square root. The findings unify the separate developments that have been performed for the SEIK filter and the other ensemble square-root Kalman filters

Definition und Erfassung psychischer Störungen: Bestandsaufnahme

Zusammenfassung: Die Entwicklung von Klassifikationssystemen für psychische Störungen hat eine lange Tradition und wird von einer unverändert anhaltenden Diskussion zu grundlegenden Fragen begleitet. Dies betrifft v.a. die allgemeine Frage, wann überhaupt eine Störung vorliegt, sowie daran anschließend die Frage, welche und wie viele Störungen sinnvoll und notwendig sind. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird ein Überblick über die mit den bisherigen Systemen Diagnostisches und Statistisches Handbuch Psychischer Störungen, 4.Aufl. (DSM-IV) und Internationale statistische Klassifikation der Krankheiten und verwandter Gesundheitsprobleme, 10.Ausgabe (ICD-10) verbundenen Paradigmen und Klassifikationsmethoden gegeben. Entgegen den ursprünglichen Erwartungen ist es nicht gelungen, auch nur eine der existierenden Diagnosen wissenschaftlich hinreichend zu validieren. Ebenso ist keine Alternative zum bisherigen deskriptiv-phänomenologischen Ansatz in Sicht. Die bevorstehenden Revisionen DSM-5 und ICD-11 werden keine konzeptuellen Neuerungen bringen, sondern lediglich einige neue Diagnosen einführen und die Kriterien einiger anderer Diagnosen modifizieren. Am Beispiel der Entwicklung von DSM-5 werden sowohl grundlegende Überlegungen als auch ausgewählte bevorstehende Änderungen kritisch diskutiert. Zudem werden Vorschläge für eine rationalere Entwicklung von Klassifikationssystemen vorgestell

Searching for the Scalar Glueball

Existence of gluonic resonances is among the early expectations of QCD. Today, QCD calculations predict the lightest glueball to be a scalar state with mass within a range of about 900-1700 MeV but there is no consensus about its experimental evidence. In a re-analysis of the phase shifts for pi pi scattering up to 1800 MeV where such states should show up we find the broad resonance f_0(600)/\sigma contributing to the full mass range and the narrow f_0(980) and f_0(1500) but no evidence for f_0(1370). Phenomenological arguments for the broad state to be a glueball are recalled. It is argued that the large radiative width of f_0(600)/\sigma reported recently is not in contradiction to this hypothesis but is mainly due to pi pi rescattering. The small ``direct'' radiative component is consistent with QCD sum rule predictions for the light glueball.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, Contribution to the Proceedings of the Workshop on Scalar Mesons and Related Topics Honoring Michael D. Scadron's 70th Birthday, 11-16 February 2008, Lisbon, Portuga

Operational tsunami modelling with TsunAWI – recent developments and applications

In this article, the tsunami model TsunAWI (Alfred Wegener Institute) and its application for hindcasts, inundation studies, and the operation of the tsunami scenario repository for the Indonesian tsunami early warning system are presented. TsunAWI was developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and simulates all stages of a tsunami from the origin and the propagation in the ocean to the arrival at the coast and the inundation on land. It solves the non-linear shallow water equations on an unstructured finite element grid that allows to change the resolution seamlessly between a coarse grid in the deep ocean and a fine representation of coastal structures. During the GITEWS project and the following maintenance phase, TsunAWI and a framework of pre- and postprocessing routines was developed step by step to provide fast computation of enhanced model physics and to deliver high quality results